2020-08-18 • Updated
The pair slumped to levels unseen since January. What’s next?
The most obvious reason why USD/CAD has dropped so much is the weak US dollar. The uncertainty over the next US fiscal stimulus package, decreasing US Treasury bond yields and the current risk-on sentiment weighed on the greenback. What’s interesting is that even the recent resignation of Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau didn’t have any impact on the loonie.
Pay closer attention on two significant economic releases on Wednesday: the OPEC meeting and FOMC meeting minutes. They may add some volatility to the Canadian dollar. OPEC members will discuss further cuts of the oil supply. In fact, Canada is one of the largest oil producers in the world. Therefore, any changes in the oil market will influence the loonie. Moreover, the Fed will unveil the detailed report of its last meeting the same day on the evening. Analysts anticipate that the Fed’s dovish tone may push the USD down even more.
On the daily USD/CAD chart we can notice that the pair has entered the descending channel. If it slumps below the support level at 1.311, which it has touched several times, it may drop deeper to the low levels of January at 1.3035. On the flip side, if it jumps above the high of August 6 at 1.3320, it may surge to the high of the end of July at 1.3415.
Follow OPEC meeting and FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday!
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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