2020-12-16 • Updated
As 2019 opened, WTI oil was at $50 per barrel. Through that entire year, it was oscillating between this support and the resistance of $65. That’s exactly where it was when the virus stroke and the global oil demand plunged. WTI oil price did the same: it dropped from $65 to zero. $35 is the level which marked a definite start of recovery as it eventually proved to be tactical resistance. Closer to the year-end of 2020, the price moved into the channel $45-50 – that same channel that used to support the WTI oil price since March 2017. What’s the projection for 2021 then, will it repeat 2017-2019 and manage to get to $65?
As the new Joe Biden takes over from Donald Trump as the newly elected US President, some changes in American international affairs are expected. Joe Biden is believed to try to get back Iran to the nuclear deal. If that’s the case, Iran will likely see the sanctions over it lifted. If that happens, Iranian oil will get back to the market – and Iran already announced that it’s planning to double its oil production in 2021. If the chain of events completes the sequence to let Iran have back its access to the global market, that will press on the oil price downwards and cause some trouble to OPEC.
The oil cartel is experiencing increasing internal incoherence. The recent meetings it held were as controversial as ever and exposed existing disagreements between the member countries. That means the strategic goal of OPEC to put ground to the oil price may be an increasingly hard target to reach. That’s going to be a key point of struggle as $45 is notable below the minimum acceptable price range for most cartel member countries - the breakeven level for many of them is above $50. Therefore, whatever their disagreements are, they will likely ensure the supply cuts to keep the price above those levels. But how much above – that’s the big question.
Officially, Saudi Arabia expects the oil price to be between $45 and $50 through 2021 on average. That’s the range it factored into Aramco’s – and, hence, state’s – revenues (although that’s no longer going to be shared with the public – KSA doesn’t like sharing Aramco’s dividend plans). EIA and IEA say roughly the same and give moderate projections on the global oil demand while the oil glut is expected to clear by the end of 2021.
So here you go with practical advice based on the above observations.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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