A decisão de taxas do FOMC promete movimentar o mercado
Nesta quarta-feira (20), o Comitê Federal de Mercado Aberto – FOMC, fará a sua reunião de política monetária, às 15:00, horário de Brasília.
Worst Awaits Risk Assets in September
2022-12-15 • Atualizado
In 2021, the S&P 500 lost 4.76% in September. What will happen this time?
There is a possibility that this scenario may repeat itself. Investors' fears are not unfounded because September is the worst month for the index. According to the historical dynamics, S&P 500 (US500) has been declining in September by 0.65% over the past 38 years.
September S&P500 (US500) index performance since 1985.
Average change of the S&P 500 (US500) index during the past 36 years.
The Crypto market usually also has a rough time in September. Bitcoin lost 12.7% in September 2021, 17.4% in 2020, 17.5% in 2018, 21.4% in 2017 and 45.4% in 2015. The main cryptocurrency increased by 13.3% and 3.95% in 2016 and 2019, respectively.
However, the extrapolation of statistical data to the current situation makes little sense if it is not tied to the economic context.
Several factors confirm a possibility of a deeper correction:
- Weak numbers might relate to the financial year ending in the United States, which starts on October 1 and finishes on September 31.
- Traders bet on a 75-basis-points rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21, which will boost the USD and add pressure on the risk assets.
- Guru traders sell stocks and invest in T-bills ahead of the deeper correction.
Technical analysis
US dollar index, H4
The RSI repeats the same pattern, which has also appeared twice in 5 previous months.
The H4 RSI goes to 84 -> RSI declines, while the price stays at the same level -> Another pump when RSI reaches 70 - 75 -> divergence appears -> deeper correction happens.
The US dollar index is already breaking above a recent high, and currently, the price is aiming at the 111.50 level.
US500, weekly
US500 keeps moving inside an inverted falling wedge. The price has formed a massive range between 3500 and 3650, and it seems like sellers are aiming for it. Moreover, the 200-week moving average, which always acts as the main support for the US500, also stands in this range. If the Fed increases the rate by 75-basis-points, the price will easily decline to this support, where we expect to see the overall market reversal.
Do you want to get updates Live? Subscribe to the @FBSAnalytics Telegram Channel, where I post more daily trade ideas!
Semelhante
Cresce as expectativas em torno da inflação dos EUA
O Bureau of Labor Statistics do Departamento do Trabalho dos EUA divulga sua leitura mais recente sobre o índice de preços ao consumidor (IPC) nesta terça-feira, às 09:30 GMT -3
Uma semana decisiva para o índice do S&P 500 e para o USD
O calendário econômico para os EUA promete mexer com os índices US 30, US 100 e US 500, já que os investidores estarão atentos aos dados macroeconômicos a serem publicados ao longo da semana em especial o índice do PCE e no final da temporada de lucros corporativos
Últimas notícias
Ofertas de Empregos Jots no radar dos touros do dólar
Depois da queda no mês de março em cerca de 26 mil vagas de emprego, a expectativa do mercado é de nova queda para 8,790M para o mês de fevereiro do mesmo ano
Investidores de olho no PMI Industrial do ISM
Nesta segunda-feira, primeiro dia do mês de abril, os EUA liberam os números dos PMIs da S&P Global e do ISM para a indústria
As expectativas dos mercados giram em torno do PCE dos EUA
Todas as atenções estarão nos preços básicos do PCE (núcleo) dos EUA, que excluem alimentos e energia para o mês de março, com a expectativa de que os números venham abaixo do mês anterior, que registraram um aumento de 0,4%
