Let’s have a look at the economic calendar.
On Tuesday, we anticipate Consumer Confidence data for the US dollar and the Financial Stability Report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that will determine the strength of the New Zealand dollar.
On Wednesday, again the economic data will affect the direction of the USD. Take into consideration prelim GDP figures. The Bank of England will deliver stress test results. Negative comments may affect the GBP.
Thursday will bring events for the commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. ANZ Business Confidence will put pressure on the kiwi. Private Capital Expenditure will show important figures for the Australian economy. Later that day traders will wait for the meeting minutes on the last decision of the Federal Reserve.
On Friday, traders will get a chance to trade on the Canadian GDP data. Remember to check comments from the G-20 summit. The meeting between the Chinese president and US president will affect the market sentiment.
Let’s consider market moves. The uptrend of the US dollar index keeps forming despite several falls. If the economic data are encouraging and there is no progress on the trade war with China, the US dollar index will keep moving up. The first psychological level to break is 97. In the case of the breakthrough, the next resistance is at 97.50. However, risks of the fall will prevail as the USD is climbing to significant highs. A fall below 96 will may provoke further decline.
Will the EUR keep forming the downtrend? The euro will be under pressure, as no significant economic events are planned for the upcoming days. Moreover, if the USD is able to reach crucial highs above 97, the EUR/USD pair will fall further down. The psychological support lies at 1.13. A break of this level will pull the pair to 1.1214. However, if the USD weakens, the euro will get a chance. The first important resistance to break is at 1.1420. The next resistance is at 1.15.
Where will the AUD go? The Australian dollar can’t form the uptrend. Negative economic data and an escalation of trade wars will pull the Australian dollar/US dollar pair down. The first important support will lie at 0.72. In the case of the breakthrough, the pair may meet the next support at 0.7170. A further fall will mean that the pair failed to form the uptrend. If the news is not so negative, the pair will have chances to recover. The first important resistance to break is at 0.7338.
The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
The gold has made a perfect retest, but will it hold against the rising dollar? Also, the Jackson Hole Symposium and Jerome Powell's speech may become critical for most assets, and finally, more economic releases and earnings reports await you.
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