Bearish scenario: Shorts below 18100 with TP1: 17900... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday Longs above 18130 with TP...
How to Trade on FOMC Press Conference?
2022-12-15 • Updated
What will happen?
FOMC press conference is among the primary methods the Fed uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.
Today, on September 22, traders await FOMC’s tapering decision as it will make a huge impact on the markets. In this article let’s discuss two possible variants of the FOMC statement and imagine how they will affect the market.
Possible variants
- Dovish statement. Powell says that the US economy still needs stimulus and doesn’t call any dates when the tapering might begin. In this case, the US dollar will get weaker.
- Hawkish statement. Powell calls the possible date of stimulus tapering (the further the date, the shorter will be the effect on the markets) and says that the government needs to take control over inflation. In this case, the US dollar strengthens.
Asset’s technical overview
US dollar index daily chart
In the 1st scenario, the US dollar index will drop down to 92.3 support level, in case, of breakout the next target will be 91.5. USD/*** will fall. ***/USD will rise.
In the 2nd scenario, the US dollar index will surge to 93.7 and 94.4 resistance levels. USD/*** will rise. ***/USD will fall.
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
In the 1st scenario, XAU/USD will surge with the main target at $1839.
In the 2nd scenario, XAU/USD might drop down and touch the $1680 support level.
S&P500 (US500) daily chart
1st scenario will send S&P500 to 4450 and 4480 resistance levels.
2nd scenario will open a road to 4250 and 4150 support levels.
Bitcoin daily chart
1st scenario will make bulls push Bitcoin up to $47 000.
2nd scenario will send the main cryptocurrency down to $37 600 and probably even $30 000 levels.
Similar
During his program on CNBC on February 28, Jim Cramer expressed frustration with the impact of earnings reports on market behavior, noting how they often prompt rash decisions by average investors. He criticized the short-term focus and lack of attention to nuance in news coverage of earnings. Cramer cited examples of Home Depot and Lowe's, highlighting how investors reacted hastily to headline news without considering the broader context provided in earnings calls.
Earnings season is a crucial time for investors and analysts, as it provides insights into how well companies have performed over the past quarter and gives indications of their future earnings. In 2023, expectations for US Q1 earnings were low due to economic challenges and rising interest rates. Surprisingly, many companies beat these low expectations, with 75% of S&P 500 companies surpassing forecasts.
Latest news
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...