AUD gained on the encouraging retail sales
Risk-on pushed stocks and riskier currencies upward.
Technical analysis
The aussie is heading towards a strong resistance area. The AUD/USD will meet the first resistance at the high of June 24 at 0.695. If it breaks it, it may surge further to the key resistance at 0.697 that it has touched several times already. Don’t worry, if price falls after breaking through one of those levels. It’s natural to see fresh selling at first. Most analysts have bullish prospects on the Australian dollar. It’s likely to move even higher towards the more significant resistance at 0.7015. Anyway, support levels are at recent lows of July 1 at 0.6910 and 0.6890 and then at 0.6830, that it has tested several times, but bounced back.
Fundamental analysis
There are many tailwinds for the Australian dollar. Firstly, it got a fresh upward stimulus from the encouraging data that came this morning. The Australian retail sales rose by 16.9%, while the forecast was 16.3%. It is the earliest report that reveal consumer spending, that’s why it’s so important for traders. Secondly, yesterday the US NFP report bet all estimates and improved the market sentiment. As a result, the risk-sensitive aussie gained on the positive data. Finally, successful Covid-19 vaccine experiments from Pfizer and BioNtech strengthened the risk-on tone on the market, as well.
Upcoming event:
Follow the rate statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on July 7 at 7:30 MT time. If the RBA gives optimistic prospects for economic recovery, AUD will gain, otherwise – it may fall.